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Investment Beliefs and Marketing

Excess Returns

Monthly insights for investment marketing and sales professionals

October 2014

It is potentially the most powerful page in any presentation book. It can articulate a firm’s identity in distinctive, memorable terms. It inspires calm fortitude during market upheavals, and it often provides points of intellectual alignment with clients and consultants. This issue of Excess Returns takes a fresh look at one of the most undervalued, misunderstood elements in the investment marketing tool kit: the investment philosophy statement.

With best wishes,

Liz Hecht
Founder, Principal and Director of Research

Print a PDF of this newsletter

Volume 4 | Number 9

In This Issue

Investment Beliefs and Marketing

Beyond Short-Termism

Investment Beliefs, The Book

Alpha Partners is an investment marketing firm specializing in research and presentation strategy. Our goal is to create alpha (excess returns) by helping investment firms win, keep and diversify assets under management.

Alpha Partners LLC
435.615.6862

www.alphainvestmentmarketing.com

Investment Beliefs and Marketing

The investment philosophy statement defines the beliefs that guide investment decisions. It is the first and possibly the most important of “the four Ps” that we’ve all been taught are critical in any institutional-quality presentation: philosophy, process, people and performance. Yet many investment firms still either do not seem to have a philosophy statement or offer up as a “philosophy” a list of truisms lacking in character, substance or distinction. In 2007 I wrote an article, Philosophy for Investment Managers, about the role of the philosophy statement — what it is and is not — for the Art & Science section of our firm’s website. Since that time, much has changed.

The Evolving Role of the Philosophy Statement

I see three new trends that investment company professionals should consider when articulating their beliefs about investing:

1.

Your target audience has beliefs, too. In a review of 2004 marketing literature for investment consulting firms, I found relatively few references to “investment beliefs” or “investment philosophy” — and virtually all of these references related to evaluating an investment manager’s philosophy as opposed to communicating the consulting firm’s own philosophy. Today, prominent investment consulting firms clearly articulate their beliefs about how to invest successfully, and asset owners such as CalPERS and the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan also have published carefully considered beliefs about investing.

Familiarity with the beliefs of your audience may confer an advantage during meetings and formal presentations. At the very least, such knowledge may save time. (Thinking about a visit to Timbuktu to flog that active US large-cap equity strategy? A quick check of Timbuktu’s Investment Policy Statement might save you a trip, as Timbuktu does not believe in active management for the most efficient areas of the market.) This new emphasis on beliefs among consultants and asset owners gives investment firms another important way to get to know their audience.

2.

The investment time horizon is increasingly important. Time is the context in which every investment philosophy plays out. According to a dataset of 40 pension funds and asset managers with publicly reported investment beliefs, however, only 6.4% of pension funds and 5% of asset managers address the time horizon when describing their philosophy of investing.1 In my experience, virtually all investment managers across asset classes claim “a long-term view” as a competitive advantage. But what does this really mean (and how big an advantage can it be if everyone else lays claim to the very same advantage)? While the market is filled with practitioners claiming to maintain a long-term discipline, one measure shows the average holding period for stocks declining steadily from 33 months in 1980 to 26 months in 1990 to 14 months in 2000 to just six months in 2010.2

This focus on short-term results might mean that long-term holders have become a bunch of complacent suckers, mere prey marching into the maw of high-frequency traders. Or it might mean that a long-term view has become a more significant competitive advantage, particularly in the current market (as I write this, the Dow is down over 300 points today after being up almost 300 points yesterday). Thoughtful, clearly articulated beliefs about the investment time horizon have become more important in crafting the investment philosophy statement, especially now when markets are so volatile and concern is rising over the tyranny of short-termism.

3.

Asset owner and consultant belief systems often explicitly address Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) principles. My 2007 article cited the following as an example of a strong philosophy statement: “We believe that sustainable development will be a primary driver of industrial and economic change over the next 25 years … Shareholders will best be served by companies that maximize their financial return by strategically managing their performance in this new economic, social, environmental and ethical context.” More recently, in 2012, Towers Watson stated its belief that “environmental, social and governance factors have material influences on risks and returns, which investors may find difficult to price fairly. This creates an information advantage for those investors who are skilled at pricing these risks accurately.”3

As of this writing, there are 1,300 signatories to the United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment, including asset owners, investment managers and professional service partners. Even if you are meeting with an institutional investor or consultant that is not a signatory as an organization, certain influential individuals within that organization may well be ardent supporters. One of these individuals might ask how an investment firm considers ESG factors in its decision process. Given rising support for Environmental, Social and Governance investment principles, investment firms can increasingly expect questions about their beliefs with respect to ESG investing.

Despite these new developments, much has remained the same. Investment managers still tend to give their beliefs short shrift, stating the obvious (an active equity manager who believes the market is inefficient) while failing to note potentially strong sources of differentiation. When belief statements are robust, they tend to be too long or larded with the uninspiring, often confusing language of academia. Actions, strategies and investment styles still are put forward as beliefs (“We are a value investment manager” is not a belief). Proof linking beliefs to results remains rare. And client review meetings, while long on portfolio characteristics and performance, rarely tie this information back to the belief system clients bought when they hired the manager. All of which adds up to a rich field of marketing opportunity for investment firms that can clearly articulate a differentiated investment philosophy and tie their beliefs back to performance.

Beyond Short-Termism

CalPERS has stated the belief that “a long investment horizon is a responsibility and an advantage.” And in their 2014 Harvard Business Review article, “Focusing Capital on the Long Term,” Dominic Barton and Mark Wiseman propose emphasis on “metrics like 10-year economic value added, R&D efficiency, patent pipelines, multiyear return on capital investments and energy intensity of production … in assessing a company’s performance over the long haul.” Many of my public equity clients, however, who believe their performance should be evaluated over at least a three- to five-year time horizon, have told me that in reality three years is a luxury. A 2013 McKinsey Quarterly survey of 1,000 board members and C-suite executives indicates that while a majority believed that a longer time horizon would positively affect corporate performance, they nonetheless felt pressured to demonstrate strong financial results in two years or less.

Mr. Barton, the global managing director of McKinsey & Company, and Mr. Wiseman, the president and CEO of the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB), note that “one reason why private equity firms buy publicly traded companies and take them private” is to avoid short-term performance pressure. In “Focusing Capital on the Long Term,” they write: “Research, including an analysis by CPPIB, indicates that over the long term (and after adjustment for leverage and other factors), investing in private equity rather than comparable public securities yields annual aggregate returns that are 1.5% to 2.0% higher, even after substantial fees and carried interest are paid to private equity firms.”

Proposed remedies abound for what Mr. Barton has called “the tyranny of short-termism”: superior voting rights for longer-term holders, compensation plans for company executives tied to long-term performance with penalties for underperformance and boards structured to diminish cronyism, to mention only a few.

Messrs. Barton and Wiseman zero in on the source of the problem and the solution: asset owners need to start acting like owners. At present, they write, “many asset owners will tell you they have a long-term perspective. Yet rarely does this philosophy permeate all the way down to individual investment decisions.” In other words, institutional investors need to start putting their beliefs into action. Or, put more bluntly, it’s time to walk the talk, especially when fiduciary responsibilities of the world’s largest asset owners stretch over generations.

Investment Beliefs, The Book

“I’d be a bum on the street with a tin cup if the markets were always efficient.”

— Warren Buffett

“I’d compare stock pickers to astrologers, but I don’t want to bad-mouth the astrologers.”

— Burton Malkiel

“We’re passive, but we’re not stupid.”

— Dimensional Fund Advisors’ co-founder David Booth

In 2011, Kees Koedijk and Alfred Slager wrote the book Investment Beliefs: A Positive Approach to Institutional Investing, which I believe will become required reading in our industry. Mr. Koedijk is Professor of Financial Management and Dean of the Tilburg School of Economics and Management, The Netherlands, and Mr. Slager, the former Chief Investment Officer at Stork Pension Fund, is director of CentER Applied Research, Tilburg University. The authors point to beliefs as key to achieving clarity of purpose in a world where volatility is the norm. In such a world, a clear set of investment beliefs — a lighthouse in a stormy sea, to borrow the book’s cover image — becomes critical.

One can read this book page by page or jump around in search of specific information. There are useful summaries and case studies spanning organizations from different countries and industries. I particularly liked the chapters that demonstrate the dispersion of beliefs around topics such as inefficiencies, risk premiums, investment horizon and sustainability. Each of these chapters includes a case study, the theory behind different beliefs and debates to be aware of; the quotes above in the chapter on inefficiencies, for example, dramatize the range of beliefs around active versus passive investing.

1.

Table 4.1 in the book, Investment Beliefs.

2.

The NYSE Factbook. For another view on the symptoms and proposed cures for short-termism, see Robert C. Pozen’s May 2014 article published by The Brookings Institution, “Curbing Short-Termism in Corporate America: Focus on Executive Compensation.”

3.

Towers Watson Investment Beliefs, under “Alpha-related” beliefs.

Questions? Comments? Dissent? Click here.

Click here for other issues of Excess Returns.

© 2014 Alpha Partners LLC Alpha Partners LLC
Marketing for Excess Returns®
1062 Oakridge Road South | Park City, UT | 84098

You are receiving this newsletter as a member of the investment community. If you no longer wish to receive it, please respond to this email with “No More Penguins” in the subject line. To subscribe to this newsletter, send an email with your request to info@alphainvestmentmarketing.com. Your privacy is important to us. We will never rent, sell or share any information that you provide.

October 2025

The Thinking Machine

The Thinking Machine tells the fascinating story of how Nvidia made the AI boom possible. Author Stephen Witt dramatizes how, by integrating two fringe strains of computer science—parallel computing and neural networks—a computer gaming company became worth more than Intel in late 2024 (and made CEO Jensen Huang’s personal net worth greater than that of Intel). The Thinking Machine also brings to life how Mr. Huang built an agile culture free of bureaucracy and politics, allowing his company to pivot at breathtaking speed in capturing the potential of AI.

April 2025

The Art of Uncertainty

Slashed spending by CEOs. Postponed or canceled construction projects. Jobs being cut and delays in hiring. “The unpredictability of President Trump’s stop-start trade offensive,” The Wall Street Journal noted on April 28, “is paralyzing companies on every front except one―taking an ax to costs.” Where will it all end? No one can know. And that’s why now is a very good time to read a book about the art of uncertainty. Professor David Spiegelhalter helps readers understand how humans have learned to measure, manage and survive the unknown. In addition to key insights about putting uncertainty into numbers, the author provides valuable lessons in successful strategies for communicating uncertainty.

January 2025

The Algebra of Wealth

Income. Compound interest. Investments. Debt. Taxes, Inflation … All play a role in building a profitable life. But so do character traits such as stoicism, focus and making the most of present time. In The Algebra of Wealth, Scott Galloway, a marketing professor at NYU Stern School of Business and a serial entrepreneur, provides expert advice on how to generate income and turn income into wealth. Based on personal experience and behavioral research, Professor Galloway offers vital insights that transcend the typical personal finance book, covering topics such as the futility of worry, treating expense management as a “rational obsession” and finding one’s true identity through hard work as opposed to pursuing a passion.

October 2024

The Money Trap

In this tale of Shakespearean proportions, Alok Sama describes his experiences working for one of the most prolific and audacious venture investment entities, SoftBank’s Vision Fund. Fund investments include ByteDance, Nvidia, Arm and Alibaba―along with legendary failures such as WeWork and Sam Bankman Fried’s FTX. At some point in his time as president and CFO of SoftBank, the author becomes aware of a plot to discredit him and a colleague―a plot involving surveillance of his family, a smear campaign in the press, bogus legal threats and even a honey trap. While hoping to learn who and why, the reader gets a fascinating crash course in early-stage tech investing.

August 2024

The Coming Wave

The Coming Wave describes how new technologies such as AI and synthetic biology are going to change the world. Not this year or next but over multiple decades. As a co-founder of two AI companies and the current head of AI at Microsoft, the author is well positioned to understand and communicate everything that can go right with the coming tsunami of new technologies―and everything that can go wrong. This book makes a compelling, heartfelt case for “claiming the benefits of the wave without being overwhelmed by its harms.”

February 2024

The Devil Never Sleeps

The devil is the potential for pandemics, climate change disasters, terrorist attacks and massive computer hacks. A leader in crisis management and homeland security, Juliette Kayyem documents in depth the perils of underreacting to the inevitable. By dismissing harbingers of doom as mere noise, countries and companies risk turning emergencies into calamities, local diseases into global pandemics and manageable negative events into existential crises. This book provides invaluable lessons on how to prepare for the devil, how to limit harm when the inevitable crises do occur and how to pivot in time for future disasters.

October 2023

Wealth, War & Wisdom

The reality of war never goes away. “Once every couple of generations,” writes Barton Biggs in Wealth, War & Wisdom, “an epic event occurs that destroys accumulated wealth.” The U.S., Australia and Sweden “have been lucky―so far―but in Europe, the apocalypse has happened in one form or another on a regular, generational basis.” In addition to tracking the fascinating history of the markets during WW II, this book explores two primary enemies of wealth during war: complacency (it couldn’t happen here, not to us) and failure to diversify by country and asset class.

August 2023

The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

Destined to become a classic of economic history, Edward Chancellor’s book provides an intensively researched compendium of all the economic woes that can result from excessively low interest rates. Starting with the ancient origins of interest, the book moves to the unintended consequences of zero-bound (and even negative) interest rates, and concludes with the impact of ultra-low rates on emerging markets.

The Marketing Power of Investment Themes

Excess Returns

Monthly insights for investment marketing and sales professionals

June 2014

Whether one practices “thematic investing” or merely considers themes a potential avenue to new investment ideas, one thing is certain: investors like themes. This issue of Excess Returns explores the power of investment themes from a marketing standpoint.

With best wishes,

Liz Hecht
Founder, Principal and Director of Research

Print a PDF of this newsletter

Volume 4 | Number 6

In This Issue

Pigeonhole or Keyhole?

Thematic Investing

Investing from the Top Down

Alpha Partners is an investment marketing firm specializing in research and presentation strategy. Our goal is to create alpha (excess returns) by helping investment firms win, keep and diversify assets under management.

Alpha Partners LLC
435.615.6862

www.alphainvestmentmarketing.com

Pigeonhole or Keyhole?

I am a philosophical soul. So every time something weird happens to me, I look for a larger meaning.

A few years back I attended a meeting with a well-known chief investment officer for a large global firm. The goal of the meeting was to discuss examples of the investment process, the better to understand how a potential investment becomes a portfolio holding. The CIO’s examples failed to connect to the investment process stated in the presentation book (a common problem). I sought to get the discussion back on track by starting from the beginning. “What are some of the macroeconomic themes currently expressed in your portfolio?” I asked.

My question offended him. “I won’t tolerate your trying to pigeonhole me,” he responded. The firm’s marketing representative tried to help by observing that specific portfolio investments could not be neatly tied to macroeconomic themes. All of this left me feeling as if I had committed some form of giant gaffe.

“But,” I soldiered on, “the investment process in your presentation book explicitly starts with ‘Step 1: Define Macroeconomic Themes?'” (I also gently suggested that if he was uncomfortable identifying specific themes, perhaps he should revise Step 1 so as not to mention themes.)

“Now there you go again,” he said, “trying to pigeonhole me.”

This level of opposition to the concept of themes and the sheer weirdness of this exchange convinced me that more was afoot here than met the eye.

The Marketing Power of Investment Themes

Talking about the portfolio in terms of themes helps prospective investors understand the investment world from a big picture perspective, viewing the universe of potential investments in terms of how the world is changing for better or worse and how human enterprise is responding to such changes. By “themes” I mean long-term trends such as “Aging Baby Boomers,” “The Battle Against Climate Change” or “Efficiency and Automation.”

I am far more comfortable thinking of my own portfolio in terms of themes than in terms of factor, country and sector exposures. I want to know what those exposures are, sure, but they do not speak to my imagination. Accordingly, I think of a holding in GoPro as expressing a “Weekend Warriors” theme and a holding in Costco as representing “The Rise of the Frugal Consumer.”

Purely from a marketing standpoint, there are several reasons why themes have broad appeal with both individual and institutional investors:

Themes provide context. Investors don’t only want to know about general investment principles or this or that investment. They want a clear, rich, differentiated picture of how their investment manager views the world. Themes satisfy this basic human craving for context.

Themes are active and forward looking. According to “Thematic Investing: Variations on a Theme” by Martin Steward of Investment & Pensions Europe (IPE), theme-oriented investment firms such as Newton Investment Management argue that themes by definition focus on change, making a thematic approach “more robust than traditional economic forecasting or quantitative modeling, which are both so vulnerable to the fact that history cannot be used to predict the future.” In an article by its Thinking Ahead Group, Towers Watson notes that theme-based investing “stands in clear contrast to the more widely used approach of market capitalization investing, where it is implicitly assumed that past winners will continue to win, and therefore deserve more attention and weight in the portfolio.” In a recent Asset TV video, Tim Hodgson of Towers Watson observes that all investors are thematic, but some choose to be so “explicitly and deliberately” while others are thematic “implicitly and accidentally.” (I think of the many firms that were significantly more exposed to the subprime debacle than they thought because the categories of investment they used masked such exposure in a way that a thematic approach might have uncovered.)

Themes tell a story. The investment markets, notes IPE’s Mr. Steward, ultimately may be less about countries, regions, sectors and market caps than “the overarching narratives that hold all the pieces in place.” Thematic investors build their portfolios to reflect these overarching narratives.

Themes are different. Part of the reason I originally wanted to work in investments was that I saw investing as a discipline requiring broad-based knowledge of how the world works and how the world is changing. In my role today as an investment marketing specialist, I have come to pounce on any information about top-down perspective like a starving dog thrown a scrap of food. I have learned to expect nothing but “bottom up, bottom up, bottom up” and my ears are always alert to anything different. Themes, like some of the world’s greatest investors, are top down (which does not by definition mean a lack of focus on bottom-up decision factors such as balance sheets and business models).

There are many more reasons why investment themes make sense. Why then did this CIO react so negatively to a straightforward question about macroeconomic themes? I still don’t know, really. I do know that so-called “thematic investing” is active, differentiating and forward looking in a way that purely bottom-up approaches cannot emulate. Themes represent a keyhole — a view on how and why the world of investments is changing — not a pigeonhole.

Thematic Investing

In conducting Internet research for this issue, I came up empty when searching for “investment themes” but hit the mother lode with a search for “thematic investing.” For example, I found several investment firms that believe in thematic investing and organize their research efforts around the concept of themes.

While it has many proponents and practitioners, however, thematic investing is controversial for several reasons. Its results are difficult to measure. It is easier to attribute performance to index-defined measures such as factors, countries and sectors. Many professional investors also conflate “themes” with “trends” or “fads.” As one skeptical hedge fund blogger put it, “Themes are all about fads.” And of course some of the best investments will not necessarily fit any one theme. It strikes me, however, that regardless of whether one chooses to be a thematic investor or a classic bottom-up investor, themes are merely another useful tool in the tool kit. The way some write about thematic investing, it reminds me of conventional medical practitioners who completely disavow holistic approaches and vice versa. Why not use all available resources? Some of those who have written about thematic investing also seem to get hung up on whether to start with themes and move to specific investments or vice versa — when obviously the best place to start is wherever one has the good fortune to get a good idea.

The main thing cutting across such theoretical considerations is the simple fact that investors like themes. According to IPE, Russell Investment’s OpenWorld single-manager platform gives investors access to themes such as climate change, infrastructure or individual emerging markets because Russell could not respond to investor demand for such exposures “with the standard large-cap equity and aggregate bond multi-manager products.”

Investing from the Top Down

In Investing from the Top Down, Anthony Crescenzi argues that a macro approach is best suited to the global nature of today’s capital markets. Selected chapters explore the role of exchange traded funds in implementing diversified thematic views and specific economic indicators key to understanding global market themes. Mr. Crescenzi’s book provides much-needed context to investors regardless of whether their primary orientation is top down or bottom up. By demystifying the process of reading major economic indicators, the book provides useful macroeconomic guideposts suitable for individual and institutional investors.

Questions? Comments? Dissent? Click here.

Click here for other issues of Excess Returns.

© 2014 Alpha Partners LLC Alpha Partners LLC
Marketing for Excess Returns®
1062 Oakridge Road South | Park City, UT | 84098

You are receiving this newsletter as a member of the investment community. If you no longer wish to receive it, please respond to this email with “No More Penguins” in the subject line. To subscribe to this newsletter, send an email with your request to info@alphainvestmentmarketing.com. Your privacy is important to us. We will never rent, sell or share any information that you provide.

October 2025

The Thinking Machine

The Thinking Machine tells the fascinating story of how Nvidia made the AI boom possible. Author Stephen Witt dramatizes how, by integrating two fringe strains of computer science—parallel computing and neural networks—a computer gaming company became worth more than Intel in late 2024 (and made CEO Jensen Huang’s personal net worth greater than that of Intel). The Thinking Machine also brings to life how Mr. Huang built an agile culture free of bureaucracy and politics, allowing his company to pivot at breathtaking speed in capturing the potential of AI.

April 2025

The Art of Uncertainty

Slashed spending by CEOs. Postponed or canceled construction projects. Jobs being cut and delays in hiring. “The unpredictability of President Trump’s stop-start trade offensive,” The Wall Street Journal noted on April 28, “is paralyzing companies on every front except one―taking an ax to costs.” Where will it all end? No one can know. And that’s why now is a very good time to read a book about the art of uncertainty. Professor David Spiegelhalter helps readers understand how humans have learned to measure, manage and survive the unknown. In addition to key insights about putting uncertainty into numbers, the author provides valuable lessons in successful strategies for communicating uncertainty.

January 2025

The Algebra of Wealth

Income. Compound interest. Investments. Debt. Taxes, Inflation … All play a role in building a profitable life. But so do character traits such as stoicism, focus and making the most of present time. In The Algebra of Wealth, Scott Galloway, a marketing professor at NYU Stern School of Business and a serial entrepreneur, provides expert advice on how to generate income and turn income into wealth. Based on personal experience and behavioral research, Professor Galloway offers vital insights that transcend the typical personal finance book, covering topics such as the futility of worry, treating expense management as a “rational obsession” and finding one’s true identity through hard work as opposed to pursuing a passion.

October 2024

The Money Trap

In this tale of Shakespearean proportions, Alok Sama describes his experiences working for one of the most prolific and audacious venture investment entities, SoftBank’s Vision Fund. Fund investments include ByteDance, Nvidia, Arm and Alibaba―along with legendary failures such as WeWork and Sam Bankman Fried’s FTX. At some point in his time as president and CFO of SoftBank, the author becomes aware of a plot to discredit him and a colleague―a plot involving surveillance of his family, a smear campaign in the press, bogus legal threats and even a honey trap. While hoping to learn who and why, the reader gets a fascinating crash course in early-stage tech investing.

August 2024

The Coming Wave

The Coming Wave describes how new technologies such as AI and synthetic biology are going to change the world. Not this year or next but over multiple decades. As a co-founder of two AI companies and the current head of AI at Microsoft, the author is well positioned to understand and communicate everything that can go right with the coming tsunami of new technologies―and everything that can go wrong. This book makes a compelling, heartfelt case for “claiming the benefits of the wave without being overwhelmed by its harms.”

February 2024

The Devil Never Sleeps

The devil is the potential for pandemics, climate change disasters, terrorist attacks and massive computer hacks. A leader in crisis management and homeland security, Juliette Kayyem documents in depth the perils of underreacting to the inevitable. By dismissing harbingers of doom as mere noise, countries and companies risk turning emergencies into calamities, local diseases into global pandemics and manageable negative events into existential crises. This book provides invaluable lessons on how to prepare for the devil, how to limit harm when the inevitable crises do occur and how to pivot in time for future disasters.

October 2023

Wealth, War & Wisdom

The reality of war never goes away. “Once every couple of generations,” writes Barton Biggs in Wealth, War & Wisdom, “an epic event occurs that destroys accumulated wealth.” The U.S., Australia and Sweden “have been lucky―so far―but in Europe, the apocalypse has happened in one form or another on a regular, generational basis.” In addition to tracking the fascinating history of the markets during WW II, this book explores two primary enemies of wealth during war: complacency (it couldn’t happen here, not to us) and failure to diversify by country and asset class.

August 2023

The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

Destined to become a classic of economic history, Edward Chancellor’s book provides an intensively researched compendium of all the economic woes that can result from excessively low interest rates. Starting with the ancient origins of interest, the book moves to the unintended consequences of zero-bound (and even negative) interest rates, and concludes with the impact of ultra-low rates on emerging markets.

Conviction = Credibility

Excess Returns

Monthly insights for investment marketing and sales professionals

October 2013

It’s the most important ingredient in any winning presentation. The secret sauce. Only it’s not so secret because everyone knows what it is; they just don’t always know how to create it consistently. I am talking, of course, about conviction — the heartfelt belief that your investment company offers the best approach and the keen desire to share that belief with your audience. This month, Excess Returns considers the importance of conviction: how to get it, how to keep it and how to communicate it consistently.

With best wishes,

Liz Hecht
Founder, Principal and Director of Research

Print a PDF of this newsletter

Volume 3 | Number 8

In This Issue

Conviction = Credibility

Spy The Lie

“That’s A Good Question”

Alpha Partners is an investment marketing firm specializing in research and presentation strategy. Our goal is to create alpha (excess returns) by helping investment firms win, keep and diversify assets under management.

Alpha Partners LLC
435.615.6862

www.alphainvestmentmarketing.com

Conviction = Credibility

Long, long ago and far, far away, our company was hired for an odd assignment: presentation coaching on delivery only — not content. We were told that this particular investment team had worked hard on its story and messaging and now just needed to fine-tune the delivery. I understood the need to maintain consistency, but I still felt compelled to ask, “Are you sure you don’t want us to address content as well, perhaps only where we see the need for refinement around the edges?” No, said our contact, the investment team was completely comfortable with the content.

It turned out that, while senior management was comfortable with the content, the investment team was less than 100% on board. We acceded to this company’s bizarre request because I thought it would be interesting, and it was. During the coaching session, one person said “That’s a good question!” in response to every question. Another delivered a disquisition on the shortcomings of performance attribution in response to a relatively simple inquiry about the track record. And yet a third person responded to even layup questions with a peculiar wincing motion, as if about to be struck.

What was going on here? For any number of reasons, this team lacked conviction.

Sources of Conviction

Conviction can’t be faked. You either have it or you don’t. Even when you do have strong conviction, however, there are many things you and your firm can do to communicate it more effectively and to foster conviction in others on the team who do not live the investment process day to day.

Strong content. Delivery is content. If your content is weak, then you cannot deliver the investment story with conviction. There are several reasons why content might be weak. Content that started strong may have been killed by committee. Or content may have been created in a vacuum of ignorance about competitors with virtually identical content. In the latter instance, presenters know on some level that they sound exactly like their competitors, which does not exactly contribute to high-conviction delivery.

Ownership. Even strong content can fail, devolving back to bland uniformity, if the whole team does not get behind it. Our firm has developed processes to ensure that everyone charged with presenting an investment strategy feels a sense of ownership regarding the story and the presentation materials. Without such buy-in, presenters may appear to lack conviction or, worse, wander off the reservation altogether, telling a story inconsistent with the larger messages a firm wishes to convey. (We work with many investment companies that sometimes send product specialists and salespeople to a finals instead of portfolio managers; it is particularly critical that these professionals demonstrate conviction, especially when competing with teams from smaller companies that do include the portfolio manager.)

Preparation. Strong content also fails to create conviction if presenters are not well prepared. Experienced presenters all know that invincible feeling one gets when one has truly prepared well. Prepared individually and as a team. Prepared for the main body of the presentation as well as the Q&A. Prepared with the book and without the book. If you’ve been telling the same story for a long time, you are by definition well prepared. But you still need to come to the story fresh so as not to sound rote and formulaic.

Understanding the audience. The best way to prevent formulaic delivery is to understand your audience. What do they want, as a group and as individuals? How can your organization help them achieve their goals? How can you make this meeting the best possible use of their time?

Physical energy and freedom from distractions. Even the strongest conviction may fail you if you feel tired or distracted. It therefore is a good idea to avoid activities that will exhaust you the day of or prior to an important meeting. You also should make every effort to stay focused. Do you really need to schedule four meetings on the same day? Couldn’t that phone call wait until after the finals?

Whenever anyone offers us a “delivery-only” mandate now, we encourage the client to rethink this approach. There is an unhealthy “do-what-you’re-told” aspect to delivery-only that will never support genuine team conviction. Developing team ownership of a presentation is a demanding, dynamic, often time-consuming process — but the payback in finals-winning conviction is well worth the effort.

Spy The Lie

In “What Deception Looks Like” and “What Deception Sounds Like,” two chapters of the 2012 book Spy The Lie, the authors, former CIA officers, explore visual and verbal behaviors that indicate deception. What struck me about this book was the number and type of deception indicators that we also see as signs of weakness during an investment presentation. People who must tell a credible story (product specialists, sales professionals, CIOs and CEOs) should read this book, as should investment research professionals required to assess the credibility of company managements.


Ex-CIA agents have a lot to teach the investment world about detecting deception. In Spy The Lie, there also are many valuable lessons for presenters who need to tell a high-conviction story consistently.

“That’s A Good Question”

For many years I have counseled our clients to stop prefacing their response to questions with “That’s a good question.” People who respond this way often do so almost as a nervous tick. Your competitors also very likely may answer most questions in precisely this manner. An even better reason to avoid this ubiquitous response, however, is that it may be perceived as evasive. Spy The Lie singles out “That’s a good question” as one of several “non-answer statements” designed to “buy time to figure out how to respond.” If the occasional “that’s a good question” slips out, it’s not a major problem, as long as the question is indeed a blazingly good question. On the whole, however, it is best to avoid this response. Show your respect for the question instead through the quality of your answer.

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October 2025

The Thinking Machine

The Thinking Machine tells the fascinating story of how Nvidia made the AI boom possible. Author Stephen Witt dramatizes how, by integrating two fringe strains of computer science—parallel computing and neural networks—a computer gaming company became worth more than Intel in late 2024 (and made CEO Jensen Huang’s personal net worth greater than that of Intel). The Thinking Machine also brings to life how Mr. Huang built an agile culture free of bureaucracy and politics, allowing his company to pivot at breathtaking speed in capturing the potential of AI.

April 2025

The Art of Uncertainty

Slashed spending by CEOs. Postponed or canceled construction projects. Jobs being cut and delays in hiring. “The unpredictability of President Trump’s stop-start trade offensive,” The Wall Street Journal noted on April 28, “is paralyzing companies on every front except one―taking an ax to costs.” Where will it all end? No one can know. And that’s why now is a very good time to read a book about the art of uncertainty. Professor David Spiegelhalter helps readers understand how humans have learned to measure, manage and survive the unknown. In addition to key insights about putting uncertainty into numbers, the author provides valuable lessons in successful strategies for communicating uncertainty.

January 2025

The Algebra of Wealth

Income. Compound interest. Investments. Debt. Taxes, Inflation … All play a role in building a profitable life. But so do character traits such as stoicism, focus and making the most of present time. In The Algebra of Wealth, Scott Galloway, a marketing professor at NYU Stern School of Business and a serial entrepreneur, provides expert advice on how to generate income and turn income into wealth. Based on personal experience and behavioral research, Professor Galloway offers vital insights that transcend the typical personal finance book, covering topics such as the futility of worry, treating expense management as a “rational obsession” and finding one’s true identity through hard work as opposed to pursuing a passion.

October 2024

The Money Trap

In this tale of Shakespearean proportions, Alok Sama describes his experiences working for one of the most prolific and audacious venture investment entities, SoftBank’s Vision Fund. Fund investments include ByteDance, Nvidia, Arm and Alibaba―along with legendary failures such as WeWork and Sam Bankman Fried’s FTX. At some point in his time as president and CFO of SoftBank, the author becomes aware of a plot to discredit him and a colleague―a plot involving surveillance of his family, a smear campaign in the press, bogus legal threats and even a honey trap. While hoping to learn who and why, the reader gets a fascinating crash course in early-stage tech investing.

August 2024

The Coming Wave

The Coming Wave describes how new technologies such as AI and synthetic biology are going to change the world. Not this year or next but over multiple decades. As a co-founder of two AI companies and the current head of AI at Microsoft, the author is well positioned to understand and communicate everything that can go right with the coming tsunami of new technologies―and everything that can go wrong. This book makes a compelling, heartfelt case for “claiming the benefits of the wave without being overwhelmed by its harms.”

February 2024

The Devil Never Sleeps

The devil is the potential for pandemics, climate change disasters, terrorist attacks and massive computer hacks. A leader in crisis management and homeland security, Juliette Kayyem documents in depth the perils of underreacting to the inevitable. By dismissing harbingers of doom as mere noise, countries and companies risk turning emergencies into calamities, local diseases into global pandemics and manageable negative events into existential crises. This book provides invaluable lessons on how to prepare for the devil, how to limit harm when the inevitable crises do occur and how to pivot in time for future disasters.

October 2023

Wealth, War & Wisdom

The reality of war never goes away. “Once every couple of generations,” writes Barton Biggs in Wealth, War & Wisdom, “an epic event occurs that destroys accumulated wealth.” The U.S., Australia and Sweden “have been lucky―so far―but in Europe, the apocalypse has happened in one form or another on a regular, generational basis.” In addition to tracking the fascinating history of the markets during WW II, this book explores two primary enemies of wealth during war: complacency (it couldn’t happen here, not to us) and failure to diversify by country and asset class.

August 2023

The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

Destined to become a classic of economic history, Edward Chancellor’s book provides an intensively researched compendium of all the economic woes that can result from excessively low interest rates. Starting with the ancient origins of interest, the book moves to the unintended consequences of zero-bound (and even negative) interest rates, and concludes with the impact of ultra-low rates on emerging markets.

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